Market index
A comprehensive overview of all tracked forecast market categories and their current status. Predicue tracks over 400 active markets across 7 categories.
Policy
142 active markets · total volume $847 million.
Political markets are the largest category on Polymarket in terms of volume and liquidity. These markets cover elections, government policies, geopolitical events and political appointments.
Top markets
- The 2028 US presidential election is the market with the largest volume, with Democrats currently holding 52%.
- Control of the US Senate: Republicans favor 58% to maintain majority
- UK general election: Labor maintains lead at 47%
- French presidential election: multiple candidates, fragmented market
- U.S. Supreme Court Appointments—Long-Term, Low-Liquidity Market
Political markets tend to be highly liquid and have long durations, making them ideal for thesis-based trading. They are heavily influenced by polling data, news events and changes in public sentiment.
Cryptocurrency
89 active markets · total volume $623 million.
Cryptocurrency markets on Polymarket cover price targets, protocol events, regulatory decisions and industry milestones. They are highly volatile and react quickly to news catalysts.
Top markets
- BTC will exceed $120k by the end of 2026 - currently at 37%, gaining momentum
- ETH above $5k – moderate probability 28%
- Solana above $500 – probability below 15%
- Bitcoin ETF AUM Milestones - Multiple Resolution Dates
- Fed rate decisions affecting cryptocurrency - correlate with economic category
Cryptocurrency markets often create advantages due to their volatility and the speed at which information is incorporated into prices. They often show correlation with traditional financial markets.
Sport
76 active markets · total volume $412 million.
Sports markets span major leagues and tournaments around the world. They have clear resolution criteria and fixed deadlines, making them ideal for probabilistic analysis.
Top markets
- FIFA World Cup winner - Spain leads with 17%, very active
- NBA champion Celtics are preferred by 34%.
- NFL Super Bowl - Off-Season Market, Low Liquidity
- Premier League winner - tight battle at the top
- Champions League - multiple rounds with varying probabilities
Sports markets are dependent on team performance, injuries, schedules and public betting patterns. They tend to have shorter durations and clearer resolution criteria than other categories.
Economy
54 active markets · total volume $298 million.
Economic markets cover central bank decisions, macroeconomic indicators, the likelihood of a recession, and policy outcomes.
Top markets
- Fed rate cut - currently at 54%, influenced by inflation data
- US recession in 2026 – low probability, 22%
- Inflation above 3% is moderate at 35%.
- US GDP Growth Targets—Multiple Thresholds
- ECB policy decisions - correlate with Fed markets
Economic markets are influenced by data releases (CPI, jobs, GDP), central bank announcements and geopolitical events. They often show strong correlations with cryptocurrency and political markets.
Technology and artificial intelligence
38 active markets · total volume $156 million.
Technology markets cover key milestones in artificial intelligence, new product launches, company valuations, and industry events.
Top markets
- AGI by 2030 - Discussed market at 18%
- OpenAI Assessment Stages - Multiple Thresholds
- Apple AR/VR launch - depends on the product, moderate liquidity
- Tesla Robotaxi launch - depends on schedule
- Key milestones for AI regulation—policy-based
Technology markets often have longer durations and are driven by product announcements, research breakthroughs, and regulatory changes. They tend to have lower liquidity but can offer significant advantage when public sentiment diverges from market prices.
Entertainment
27 active markets · total volume $89 million.
Entertainment markets cover awards shows, box office forecasts, music industry events and cultural milestones.
Top markets
- The Best Picture Oscar is a seasonal market that peaks when nominations are announced.
- Grammy Awards - Multiple Category Markets
- Emmy Awards - Television Markets
- Box office milestones - depending on the film
Entertainment markets tend to have lower liquidity but can offer significant advantage when public sentiment diverges from market prices. They are often driven by critical reviews, audience ratings and industry buzz.
Science and climate
19 active markets · total volume $67 million.
Science and climate markets cover temperature records, space missions, energy milestones and scientific breakthroughs.
Top markets
- Global temperature record - long-term, climate-driven
- The main stages of the mission to Mars - space exploration
- Fusion energy stage - depends on technology
- CO2 Concentration Records - Annual Resolution
These markets are driven by scientific developments and often have long lead times to resolve problems. They tend to use specialized traders who have experience in the field.